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The End of Petrol/Diesel Vehicles Within 8 Years?

Electric Car

The End of Petrol/Diesel Vehicles Within 8 Years?

 

By 2025 the entire vehicle market will be electric, Professor Tony Seba from Stanford University argues.

The economist predicts that motorists will switch to self-driving electric cars as a cost-saving measure, resulting in the total collapse of the oil industry.

In his report, Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030 reported in The Daily Telegraph, Seba goes even further and believes that cities will ban human drivers from getting behind the wheel once data shows how dangerous they are compared to robots.

He said: “We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history.

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“By 2030, within ten years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of US passenger miles travelled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport as-a-service” (TaaS).

“The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value — but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.

“The disruption will be driven by economics. Using TaaS, the average American family will save more than $5,600 (£4,300) per year in transportation costs, equivalent to a wage raise of 10%. This will keep an additional $1 trillion per year in Americans’ pockets by 2030, potentially generating the largest infusion of consumer spending in history.”

Here are some of his key findings:

* The number of passenger miles will increase from 4 trillion miles in 2015 to 6 trillion in 2030.

* The cost of delivering these miles will drop from $1,481 billion in 2015 to $393 billion in 2030.

* The size of the US vehicle fleet will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.

* Annual manufacturing of new cars will drop by 70% during the same period.

* Annual manufacturing of new ICE mainstream cars sold to individuals will drop to zero. Car dealers will cease to exist by 2024.

* Huge opportunities will emerge in vehicle operating systems, computing platforms and TaaS fleet platforms.

* Global oil demand will drop from 100 million barrels per day in 2020 to around 70 million barrels per day in 2030.

* The price of oil will drop to around $25 per barrel.

* Oil prices might collapse as soon as 2021.

* Car insurance will be disrupted by a 90% fall in the insurance costs incurred by TaaS users, which is driven by the elimination of theft and sharp reductions in insurer costs for liability, injury and vehicle damage.

* Internal combustion engine vehicles will be eliminated from fleet by end of 2030s at the latest.

“Given that the average age of a vehicle on the road is 11.5 years, we can expect that ICE cars sold before 2023 must be replaced by the mid-2030s. This means that the remaining ICE vehicles will be eliminated from the fleet before 2040,” Seba said.